The hottest polyethylene market still has a lift

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There is still room for upgrading in the polyethylene market

recently, the industry has paid more and more attention to the question: is there room for the polyethylene market to rise? How much room to rise

for the above problems, the views of the industry are not consistent. Some people believe that the situation is optimistic, and there will be more room for prices to rise; Others believe that there is little room for prices to rise again in the first half of this year, and there may be a decline

judging from the recent changes in some relevant factors of polyethylene and the basic situation of supply and demand, the author believes that the overall price level of polyethylene (including high and low pressure polyethylene) in the first half of the year will have room to rise, but the range will not be too large. It is estimated that the space for ton price rise in June is between 100-300 yuan

reviewing the polyethylene market situation in the past five months this year, the changes in the market obviously reflect the following characteristics: first, the overall situation is good; Second, the price fluctuation is fast and large. And more prominently reflects the word "fast"

simply from the fluctuation of market prices, January to February is basically stable, with occasional small fluctuations. Among them, the price of high-pressure polyethylene 951-050 produced in Maoming is basically maintained at about 6000-6100 yuan/ton, while the price of low-pressure polyethylene wire drawing material 5000S produced in Daqing is maintained at 5400-5600 yuan/ton. In addition, the price of linear material 7042 produced in Guangzhou, whose international market demand is gradually rising, is also maintained at about 5400-5500 yuan/ton. However, after entering March, the whole plastic market began to start, especially with polyethylene as the "leader", and the price rose rapidly, and this upward trend continued until the end of March and early April, that is to say, the whole rise lasted nearly 40 days. During this period, the highest ton price of high-pressure polyethylene produced in Maoming rose to 7400 yuan/ton, an increase of about 21%. Domestically, the price of 5000S produced in Daqing also rose to 7100 yuan/ton, an increase of about 29%. In a short period of one month, the price of polyethylene has risen by more than 20%, which should be said to be relatively rare, and the rise can not be said to be great

however, the rising trend of polyethylene market has only maintained for more than a month. After entering the middle of April, the market has changed rapidly, and the price has changed from rising to falling, and it has decreased significantly. This downward trend lasted until early May, nearly a month. Among them, the price of 951-050, a famous high-pressure polyethylene product, once fell to a low level of 6400 yuan/ton. Compared with the high price in early April, the ton price fell by nearly 1000 yuan

after entering the middle of May, the market soon became stable and slowly recovered. Up to now, the price of 951-050 produced in Maoming has basically stabilized at about 6800 yuan/ton, while the price of 5000S produced in Daqing has also remained at about 6400-6600 yuan/ton

although the polyethylene market has fluctuated significantly since this year, on the whole, the situation is relatively good: first, the overall price level is a trend of increasing more and decreasing less; But the overall price level is significantly higher than that at the beginning of this year. The current market price of Maoming 951-050 is 6800 yuan/ton, 700-800 yuan/ton higher than the price at the beginning of the year; Third, the market trading atmosphere is good, especially after entering the middle of May, the market trading has obviously become active, and dealers and end users have the demand to replenish inventory, which is also an important factor driving the rise of polyethylene prices

some operators are worried that the polyethylene price will fall back to the low level at the beginning of the year after entering June. From the current supply and demand situation, the author believes that the situation is still dominated by optimism

as we all know, the fluctuation of the price of both high-pressure polyethylene and low-pressure polyethylene after repeated experiments and customer verification is basically closely related to the change of oil price in the international market. Whenever the oil price rises, the price of polyethylene in the international market is bound to rise, while the price in the domestic market, especially in Guangzhou market, will rise accordingly, which is just a matter of time

driven by the rise in international oil prices, the quotation of high-pressure polyethylene film materials in the Asian market in April this year increased by nearly $100/ton compared with March, reaching a high of $680/ton at the highest; After entering may, the international quotation fell slightly, and the current price is about 630 US dollars/ton. However, we must see the other side, that is, the oil price in the international market is "high". Moreover, relevant insiders predict that the high price of oil will not change significantly in the first half of this year. In other words, the quotation of polyethylene in the international market in the first half of this year will not fall significantly. It can be expected that the price in Guangzhou market will not fall back

in addition, from the supply of market resources. In the first three months of this year, the import volume of high-pressure materials and low-pressure materials increased by about 24% over the same period last year. However, after April and may, due to the rise in international market quotations and the uncertainty of some import procedures, the arrival of imported products will not be many, which is not only a main reason for the recent rebound after the market downturn, but also a strong support for the steady rise of the market in June

from the analysis of the relationship between the international market oil price and the domestic polyethylene price in recent years, the author believes that the current market price in Guangzhou is also low, which has not risen to the due level, and there may be room for 200-300 yuan to rise. Moreover, since the beginning of this year, especially the research on the causes of mega building fires, such as the cultural center attached to the new site of Beijing CCTV, the teachers' apartment in Jiaozhou, Shanghai, and the Wanxin building of Shenyang Imperial Dynasty. From the perspective of the market demand for materials science, although it can not be said to be prosperous, there are signs of improvement, indicating that the downstream industry still has strong support. The author believes that the high-pressure polyethylene in June is likely to support the price level of more than 7000 yuan/ton

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