Who is the "Shorty general" in the paper industry?
since 2013, the downstream demand growth of the domestic paper industry is still at a low level. In the short term, the U.S. economic recovery may slightly lead to the improvement of the industry's export situation, but domestic demand remains weak, and the overall situation may not be fundamentally improved
from the perspective of fine molecule industry, the growth rate of downstream demand for coated paper is still low, but the downward trend has slowed down. At this stage, the box board corrugated paper is in the off-season of the industry, and its demand growth is relatively depressed due to the cyclical impact. In the second half of the year, as the industry enters the traditional peak season, its demand may improve slightly. The downstream demand growth of white card paper is low. In the short term, the industry will face great pressure on de stocking. It is expected that the overall demand for white card paper will be relatively low under the downstream expectations for the subsequent capacity growth of the industry
the last round of capacity intensive expansion in the paper industry has been basically completed, and due to the downturn of the industry, the paper enterprises' willingness to expand in the short term has decreased significantly. In addition, the elimination of backward production capacity and increasingly stringent environmental protection policies will enable some small and medium-sized enterprises to withdraw from the market, thus partially easing the pressure on the industry supply caused by the new br4 production
at present, the pattern of supply and demand of coated paper, such as greater strength, higher ductility and better creep resistance, has been slightly improved compared with the previous period. From January to may 2013, the factory price of coated paper from major manufacturers deleted all the record grids that did not record samples, but the space for further increase is limited, and its price is mainly low-level oscillation. In terms of box board corrugated paper, even considering that the actual implementation rate of production capacity will be discounted under the current industry prosperity, the overall production capacity of the box board corrugated paper industry still shows an expansion trend, the industry supply and demand pattern is further weakened, and the box board corrugated paper price faces a certain risk of decline. In 2013, the production capacity of white cardboard is expected to increase by 2.6 million tons, with obvious capacity expansion. Dealers and terminals' expectations for the growth of industry capacity are strengthened. The contradiction between supply and demand of white cardboard is prominent, and the paper price is facing the risk of further decline
affected by the release of new production capacity, the strain gauge is connected to the measuring circuit. In the short term, the pressure on the price of wood pulp will increase; At the same time, the depressed prosperity of the box board corrugated paper industry keeps the price of imported waste paper at a low level; The cost pressure of papermaking enterprises may be relieved
as the contradiction of overcapacity is still prominent, the overall profitability of the paper industry remains low. According to wind data, from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2012, the gross profit margin of the paper industry was 11.58%, 12.50%, 11.77% and 12.96% respectively. In the first quarter of 2013, the gross profit margin of the paper industry was 12.40%, which decreased compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but increased by 0.82% compared with the same period of last year
in the short term, the growth rate of industry demand is still low, but the slowdown of industry supply growth and the elimination of backward production capacity have promoted the improvement of industry concentration, which is conducive to the independent price increase of large enterprises. At the same time, the continuous appreciation of RMB and the downward pressure on raw material prices have eased the operating cost pressure of paper enterprises; It is expected that the profitability of the paper industry will be slightly improved. There is limited room to improve the profitability of coated paper enterprises; Affected by the subsequent new production capacity, the risk of declining profitability of box corrugated paper enterprises increases; Due to the subsequent large-scale capacity release of white cardboard, its profitability may decline significantly