Who is the new bull's eye of commodity investment

2022-08-02
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Who is the new bull's eye of commodity investment

as the temperature drops, haze may return. On the other side of the ocean, hurricanes have changed their names one after another, disturbing the peace of mankind. Under the trend of global warming, environmental protection is urgent. This year, China's environmental protection actions have suddenly increased, especially from July to October. The schedule of environmental protection restrictions specific to regions and industries is clear

multi industry factories have become the protagonists of this round of "fog and haze Sniper War". Steel, coal, electrolytic aluminum, titanium Bai Fen and other environmental protection "bull's-eye" have become hot investments in the capital market. In the case of continuous environmental protection storms in rare metals, coal, non-ferrous metals and other industrial sectors, the product prices are riding the wind, and the investment value is prominent: the futures prices have increased significantly, and the performance of listed companies has been realized. In the next two months, the environmental protection action is still expected. Do the above sectors still have investment opportunities

environmental protection "bull's-eye" investment benefits highlight

at the beginning of June, the trend of bulk commodities turned around. So far, the Wenhua financial industrial products index has risen about 30% since June 1. Among them, the non-ferrous sector rose by 18%, the chemical sector by about 16%, and the black sector by about 49%

analysts believe that the above performance of bulk commodities, especially industrial products, is inseparable from this year's environmental protection policy

this year, the Ministry of environmental protection led 4 ministries, commissions and 6 provinces and municipalities to jointly issue the 2017 work plan for the prevention and control of air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas (hereinafter referred to as the plan), which aims to strengthen the prevention and control of air pollution in "2+26" cities in winter and comprehensively reduce the regional pollution discharge load, involving as many as 16 industries

the macro research of Haitong Securities pointed out in a report that since June 2016, almost every two meetings of the central leading group for comprehensively deepening reform, environmental protection documents have been issued, and the formulation of environmental protection policies has been significantly accelerated

in an earlier interview with China Securities Journal, the relevant person in charge of a large non-ferrous enterprise in Northwest China said that this year's environmental protection policy may be the biggest "dark horse" for non-ferrous enterprises and non-ferrous prices. At the early stage of the plan, no one expected that it would be implemented so strictly. According to insiders, under the influence of environmental protection plus supply side reform, this round of electrolytic aluminum production reduction has affected the clearing of more than 3 million tons of illegal production capacity, and the shutdown of illegal production capacity continues. Under the support of supply contraction, the main force of Shanghai aluminum has been rising for three consecutive months since June, with a cumulative increase of 20% from June to August. Flush data show that Chinalco, the leading stock in the A-share aluminum sector, rose about 91% over the same period

in terms of titanium Bai Fen, titanium slag, titanium Bai Fen, reduced titanium and other products belong to industries with high energy consumption and pollution. After the implementation of environmental protection rules, relevant enterprises in the main production areas of titanium Bai Fen in Shandong and Sichuan have successively reduced or stopped production, and the output of domestic titanium Bai Fen has decreased by more than 30%. In June and July, the flush data showed that the A-share titanium Bai Fen concept stock longmang Baili had a cumulative increase of about 37.2%

rare metals have also performed well in this round of environmental protection market. According to market participants, since June this year, tungsten mine related producers have implemented production capacity in strict accordance with environmental protection requirements, affecting supply. Tungsten metal has recorded an increase of more than 50% in the past two months; Some foreign investors pointed out that if the production capacity continues to be strictly controlled, the price may face a higher rise. In addition, due to environmental protection and limited production, the prices of rare metals such as neodymium and praseodymium, as well as the prices of cobalt and vanadium related to Li batteries have also soared recently. Ruthenium, iridium and rhodium also performed amazingly, but they were not concerned by ordinary investors due to the lack of corresponding investment targets

in terms of coal, from June to August, the price of Wenhua finance and economics coal sector increased by 52%, especially in August, the rise of coal price accelerated significantly. Analysts believe that since the end of August, environmental protection and production restriction have been escalating, and coal mines in Shanxi and other places have stopped production for rectification, which has restricted the coal supply, making the recent coal price strong

the grand play is far from over

as the weather turns cooler and the haze season approaches, in the "golden nine and silver ten" of the traditional industrial production peak season, the grand play of environmental protection is still unfinished

it is understood that in September, the objectives of environmental protection supervision include two aspects: first, whether special emission limits are implemented for so, NOx and particulate air pollutants emitted by all coal-fired boilers in the Urban Administrative Region before the end of September; Second, check whether all localities have completed the formulation of peak shift production plans and lists. For enterprises in key industries that do not implement peak shift production, check whether the maximum allowable production load has been verified according to the tasks undertaken, and review or record it according to the requirements of the plan

in October, the inspection and quarantine department should strengthen guidance and formulate preventive measures, and then enter the stage of supervision and acceptance, including: the completion of the task of banning "small scattered pollution" enterprises at the end of October; The completion of the elimination of coal-fired boilers, tea stoves and small operating coal stoves with a steam capacity of 10 tons or less by the end of October. The troubleshooting method is to check whether the belt is greatly deformed; By the end of the year, 13 industries including steel, cement, flat glass, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, coking, nitrogen fertilizer, printing and dyeing, API manufacturing, tanning, electroplating, pesticides, and agricultural and sideline food processing had been issued pollutant discharge licenses; By the end of the year, whether the implementation of the plan for comprehensively meeting the discharge standards of industrial pollution sources in eight industries, namely, iron and steel, thermal power, cement, coal, papermaking, printing and dyeing, sewage treatment plants and waste incineration plants, has achieved remarkable results

according to relevant researchers, this round of central environmental protection supervision is different from previous environmental protection supervision in three aspects: higher level, wider scope and greater strength

according to the macro research team of Li Chao of Huatai Securities Research Institute, in consideration of the impact of de capacity and environmental supervision, PPI prices may reach a high in the second half of the year in May. The most stringent time for environmental protection supervision is in the entry stage, and the industry price is adjusted in advance as expected. Therefore, the price will reach a high point in two months. September is the high point of PPI month on month, and the highest increase may reach 1.0% month on month. After plastic pipes, but this round of environmental protection is very strong, all regions may also carry out a look back in succession to avoid the resurgence of pollution sources, the gap between supply and demand will not shrink soon, and the profits of enterprises are expected to be sustainable

where will the black and chemical sectors go?

how will the subsequent environmental impact evolve in terms of the black and chemical sectors that attract the most attention in the domestic future market

huangliqiang, chemical analyst of Jinshi futures, said that chemical enterprises will discharge waste water, waste gas and waste residue in the daily production process. If they are not treated, they will pollute the environment. Some small and medium-sized enterprises can not effectively curb environmental pollution due to insufficient environmental protection facilities and extensive treatment. The national environmental protection inspection forced enterprises that failed to meet the environmental protection assessment to stop production, resulting in the overall supply shortage of chemicals. Due to the capacity expansion in previous years, the domestic chemical industry has been in a serious situation of overcapacity. In fact, in addition to environmental protection inspection to prevent environmental pollution, it also realized the elimination of backward production capacity and the clearing of production capacity. For most small and medium-sized enterprises, the non-compliance of environmental protection is largely due to the backward equipment, which can not be avoided simply by improving their subjective enthusiasm. The improvement of equipment requires a large amount of funds, which means that these enterprises are difficult to meet the environmental protection requirements and can be regarded as policy de capacity

"Under such circumstances, it is irreversible for many enterprises to stop production. Even if the price of chemicals rises, it is difficult for these enterprises to restart. However, from the specific impact, different varieties are slightly affected. For PVC, the upstream Dian Shi is the focus of environmental supervision, which directly leads to the sharp rise in the price of Dian Shi, pushing up the price of PVC. For a Chun, the impact is more on downstream formaldehyde and other enterprises, which The shutdown of the enterprise caused the decline of the demand of a Chun. Most of the plastic, PP, PTA and other enterprises are state-owned enterprises or strong private enterprises, which are less affected by environmental protection. " Huang Li Qiang further explained

he believes that the current sharp rise in the price of chemicals is supported by rising costs and low inventory on the one hand, and is also affected by market sentiment on the other hand. However, with the rising prices, the basic constraints on chemicals will appear, and the trend of chemicals in the later stage will begin to differentiate

in terms of black series, caoyuming, a researcher of black varieties of Hengtai futures, believes that environmental protection and production restriction in the second half of the year will have different effects on different varieties of black series. For steel, on the one hand, after the sharp rise in the early stage and the negative impact of real estate regulation gradually emerged, it is indeed necessary to adjust the steel price. However, the supply of Lanzhou University is relatively more affected due to production restriction. Therefore, the steel price will probably remain high and volatile in the second half of the year. For coke, due to the large margin of futures premium and spot price, and the relatively small impact of environmental protection and production restriction on coke production, there is a great pressure to adjust the coke futures price. The price of coking coal and thermal coal is more affected by the inventory system to be implemented. At present, the overall coal inventory is low, and there is a demand for replenishment in the industrial chain, resulting in a relatively strong current price. However, there is great resistance to the continued rise of prices in the future, at least not supported by the policy

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