It is worth looking forward to a big breakthrough

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PVC: it is worth looking forward to a big breakthrough in price in the peak demand season

the PVC market trend in 2008 is very obvious: it continued to rise in the first half of the year and fell all the way in the second half of the year. The high price of PVC in 2008 was indeed higher than that of last year, but the actual profit situation made all participants complain incessantly. Especially after the outbreak of the financial crisis in the second half of the year, the cost advantage of calcium carbide PVC is no longer; On the contrary, the continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to the decline in the production cost of ethylene process, but the carbide process industry is facing a loss situation of the whole industry, with a maximum loss of more than 1000 yuan. Affected by this, a large number of calcium carbide PVC production plants shut down or reduced production. At this time, we also found that the cost line is not the bottom line of the price

having experienced a mixed year of sadness and joy in 2008, we entered 2009 under the shadow of the financial crisis. As the first quarter of 2009, the domestic PVC market trend is not satisfactory. Although it is a new start of the new year, under the influence of the financial crisis, the black in the second half of 2008 continued to extend in 2009. When the traditional off-season of demand encountered a global financial tsunami, the bleakness of downstream demand can be imagined. Although there were several small rises in the market during this period, it was also like a flash in the pan. Throughout the first quarter, the price of domestic calcium carbide has been fluctuating in the price range of 5900 to 6300 yuan/ton

main factors affecting the market:

1. Supply and demand situation:

no matter what kind of influence, in the final analysis, it will be transmitted to the supply and demand changes of products. The adjustment of supply and demand situation is the main factor determining the market trend. If the demand is strong, the product price is naturally ideal; Otherwise, the market trend is poor. The market since the second half of 2008 has well illustrated the impact of demand support on market trends

in terms of the current domestic PVC plant capacity alone, there is no doubt that there is overcapacity. However, we should also note that there is a serious problem of low operating rate in China's PVC industry. According to our rough statistics, the current overall unit load of the domestic PVC industry is about 60%. Compared with the supply and demand situation in 2008 (8.82 million tons of domestic production, 15.6 million tons of production capacity, 56.5% of unit operation, and 9 million tons of apparent demand in 2008), we can say that the current domestic PVC market is basically in the situation of supply and demand balance. Although the second and third quarters are the traditional peak seasons, and the demand may gradually recover, we are also faced with the increase of domestic production and import volume. In the later stage, the start-up of devices and the new production of polyfluorouracil will tilt the balance, and a large number of imported materials continue to flow into the source, which have become hidden dangers restricting the later PVC market trend

2. Raw material price:

China is a PVC production country dominated by calcium carbide method. At present, the capacity ratio of domestic calcium carbide method and ethylene method is 3:1, so the trend of calcium carbide price directly affects the changes of domestic PVC market. Opening after the Spring Festival, that is, at the beginning of February, due to the arrival of calcium carbide from all over the country, but the start-up of PVC devices did not increase, the price of calcium carbide fell due to sufficient supply. It is suggested that: when you do not use plastic tensile testing machines, some calcium carbide enterprises reduce their losses, so the start-up of devices has increased, and the increase of PVC supply has led to lower prices

at the beginning of March, the national development and Reform Commission and others issued documents requiring the cancellation of preferential electricity prices in high energy consuming industries before March 15. After that, many calcium carbide enterprises in the northwest stopped production, resulting in the price rise of calcium carbide due to tight supply. The rise of PVC costs also directly promoted the rise of the domestic PVC market, and became the main factor that made it difficult for the PVC market to fall

later PVC Market Outlook:

the apparent demand for PVC in China reached 9million tons in 2008, a decrease of 10.02% compared with 2007; Its Chinese output is 8.82 million tons, accounting for 91.15%, and its import volume is 797500 tons, accounting for 8.85%. Technical specification for bolt shotcrete support GB 50086 ⑵ the annual production capacity is 15.6 million tons. According to our statistics, the domestic PVC planned to increase the production capacity by about 2million tons in 2009, an increase of 18.58%. Considering the current profitability of the industry, some new projects will be temporarily stranded or indefinitely delayed. It is conservatively estimated that the new capacity will also be 1million tons

Under the condition of not reducing the physical, chemical and functional properties of raw materials

comprehensive analysis, in 2009, the peak demand season in the second and third quarters is still worth looking forward to, and prices are expected to rise in two waves under the guidance of warmer demand. However, considering the impact of the overall economic environment, there will be no boom in demand in previous years, and the demand this year is expected to remain at the level of 9million tons last year; In addition, due to the expansion of plant capacity and the impact of imported materials in the later stage, it is difficult to make a major breakthrough in the price. For ordinary electric stone alone, it is also very difficult to stand at the 7000 yuan/ton level

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