It is expected that the construction machinery wil

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It is expected that the construction machinery will return to the level of last year's peak season in the second quarter, and the infrastructure stocks will shut down in one day. Infrastructure stocks with strong performance on March 2 picked up again on March 4 after a slight decline on March 3. As one of the leaders in the cycle industry, construction machinery will take the lead in boosting the demand for construction machinery market with the acceleration of infrastructure engineering and real estate construction

since the beginning of this year, Shenwan mechanical engineering sector has significantly underperformed the market. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative growth rate has been 6.24%. Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG machinery in the sector have increased by 10.38% and 6.03% in the same period. Zoomlion has closed flat in the same period

CITIC Securities pointed out that the domestic epidemic in February has reached an inflection point. At the same time, the central government has set the policy direction of stable economic growth, and monetary and fiscal policies have helped reverse cycle adjustment, which is good for the demand for construction machinery. The peak sales season of construction machinery and equipment in 2020 will be delayed for about months, and the impact of the epidemic on the annual sales of construction machinery is limited

sales were under pressure in the first quarter

under the influence of the epidemic, all regions have made a series of policy adjustment measures to stabilize growth. Since the middle of February, Jiangsu Province, Henan Province, Beijing, Yunnan Province, Fujian Province, Chongqing and Jiangxi Province have successively released the list of major project investment plans for 2020. The investment projects mainly involve the fields of infrastructure, people's livelihood and industrial transformation, of which infrastructure projects account for the majority. According to incomplete statistics of Soochow securities, the total investment involved in the investment list of 4 provinces and 2 cities has exceeded 14trillion yuan, of which nearly 300million yuan is planned to be invested this year

as one of the leaders in capital construction, construction machinery has a lot of natural benefits. On March 2, the Shenwan construction machinery index rose by 7.94%, the Shanhe intelligent trading in the plate, and the growth of construction machinery, Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG machinery were all above 8%. Capital construction stocks such as cement and construction machinery took a temporary rest on March 3 after rising sharply on March 2. On the 4th, under the downturn of chip technology stocks, Shantui shares rose by the limit, and Liugong and Anhui jointly rose by more than 4%

in fact, the significant decline in sales of construction machinery in the first quarter of this year is inevitable. Taking excavators as an example, the data show that in January 2020, the sales volume of excavators was 9942, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%; Among them, the sales volume in the domestic market decreased by 23.5% year-on-year; Export sales increased by 35.3% year-on-year

according to the analysis, the sales volume of excavators in January this year was mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the effective commencement time was reduced by 9 days. In addition, affected by the COVID-19, major cities and companies have suspended or suspended construction, and the sales of construction machinery in the first quarter may be under pressure

AVIC securities also has a similar view. Real estate and infrastructure are the two major supports for the demand for construction machinery. The delay in the resumption of stock projects and the delay in the start of incremental projects will inevitably lead to the delay in the demand for construction machinery. This situation will be superimposed on the logistics and traffic control during the epidemic period, as well as the possible restrictions on the export of China's construction machinery in overseas regions, As a result, the sales of construction machinery in the whole first quarter is bound to be greatly affected. If the epidemic is not effectively controlled in a short time, the sales of construction machinery in the whole first half of the year may be affected

in the whole year, many institutions believe that the demand for construction machinery is only delayed. It is expected that the construction machinery will recover to a higher level in the whole year under the background of updating the existing equipment and increasing the infrastructure in the future

HENGQIANG, the leading enterprise of construction machinery

last year, the leading enterprise of construction machinery had a brilliant performance, with a significant increase. The performance forecast of Zoomlion, XCMG machinery and Sany Heavy Industry shows that the highest year-on-year increase in net profit last year was more than 90%

Zoomlion expects to achieve a net profit of 4.3 billion to 4.5 billion yuan in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 112.89%-122.79%. In 2019, the demand of domestic downstream industries such as real estate and infrastructure construction maintained a good growth rate, and the construction machinery industry continued to boom, maintaining medium and high growth throughout the year

XCMG's 2019 pre profit is 3.6 billion yuan to 4billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 75.98%-95.53%. Benefiting from the steady growth of domestic fixed asset investment and the renewal demand of construction machinery stock equipment, the construction machinery industry continues to maintain its growth momentum

Sany Heavy Industry predicts that the annual net profit in 2019 will be 10.8 billion yuan to 11.8 billion yuan, an increase of 77% to 93% year-on-year. During the reporting period, the sales of the company's excavation machinery, concrete machinery, hoisting machinery, piling machinery and other equipment continued to grow, and the profitability was significantly improved

in recent years, the leading market share of the construction machinery industry has increased continuously. Soochow Securities believes that the growth rate of the industry's leading sales in January this year was lower than that of the industry, and the leading market share in the epidemic is still further focused. With the advent of the overall opportunity of the industry in the era of large infrastructure construction, it is expected that the competitive advantages of leading companies, such as brand, technology and supply chain, especially carbon fiber reinforced plastic stress chain, will be further strengthened, and the market share will continue to increase. The growth rate of the composition of steel bar bending testing machines of small and medium-sized enterprises will be under pressure, and the trend of the industry's strong will remain unchanged

according to the relevant investigation of the machinery group and the construction group of CITIC Securities Research Department, all regions have begun to gradually resume work in late February, and it is expected that most of the construction needs will start to be fully started in the middle and early March. As the downstream market demand is delayed by the epidemic, the peak sales season of construction machinery will not disappear, but will lag behind. The market demand will slowly recover in March. It is expected that the sales volume in May will recover or even exceed the peak season level in 2019

for the whole year, under the assumption that the industry concentration with the annual growth rate of 3% for new real estate construction and 8% for infrastructure construction has improved the accuracy of the experimental results, it is expected that the sales of excavators, concrete machinery and truck cranes will increase by about 10%~20%, 30% and 10% respectively in 2020, and the industry will continue to maintain the boom trend

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